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Passing Shots

The Fifth Set Blog

Topics: Active vs Passive, Asset Allocation, Bonds, Efficient Market Hypothesis, Evidence-Based Investing, Index Investing, Portfolio Management, Uncategorized

Investors Are Usually Wrong

In a recent New York Times article, Jeff Sommer, discussed the implications of new data from Dalbar, a research firm that studies the behavior of mutual fund investors.  Their latest research shows that over the past 10 years, stock investors under-performed the S&P 500 by  …read more »

Interest Rate Changes and Stock Returns – A Way to Actively Position Stock Portfolios?

Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve recently signaled the Fed’s readiness to cut the target for short term interest rates (federal funds rate) at the next meeting on July 30th and 31st.  According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, as of 7/19/19, the  …read more »

The Guru and The Investor: Act 2 – The Evidence-Based Advisor Strikes Back

Act Two The Setting Following his interview of a hedge-fund manager to see if he should manage his retirement assets, the Investor turns his search to a different type of advisor, for a philosophy based on something called ‘evidence-based investing’.  This seemingly outlandish idea is  …read more »

The Evidence is in (Again). Indexing Beats Active Management.

S&P Dow Jones Indices released their latest SPIVA (S&P Index vs Active) scorecard for the period ending December 2018.  If you’re a fan of active fund managers, the news is not good. Following are some quick data points and a video from NBR with Bob  …read more »

The Guru and The Investor: A Hedge Fund Story

Act One The Setting Guru appears on CNBC to explain what will happen with interest rates, Brexit, and the economy over the next two years.  Investor sees Guru on TV and assumes that CNBC would only have people on their shows who knew what they  …read more »

Déjà Vu All Over Again

Investment fads do not lead to investment success.  Discipline to a long-term investment strategy is the key.   This post from Dimensional Fund Advisors offers a compelling rebuttal of past investment fads and an alternative investment approach driven by evidence and academic research…    

Stock Valuations are High: Five Things to Do (and Not Do) About It

Stock market valuations are at historical highs and we are more than nine years into the current bull market. It stands to reason that the bull market won’t continue indefinitely. So, not surprisingly, investors are voicing more frequent concerns about high stock market valuations and  …read more »

A Brief History of the Index Fund

On the 40th anniversary[1] of the launch of the First Index Investment Trust (now the Vanguard 500 Index Fund), it is interesting to note how the original premise of index funds has held up over time.  The premise that a low-cost, unmanaged fund, simply composed  …read more »

Investor (Mis)behavior

A well-written recent New York Times article seeks to elucidate the causes of investor (mis)behavior through recent research into behavioral finance.  In the article, the author, Gary Belsky, details five cognitive biases that are hard-wired into human brains.  These biases form the basis for investor  …read more »

A World Without Stock Picking Skill – Revisited

In a follow up to an S&P Dow Jones Indices Study from the summer 2014 “Does Past Performance Matter? The Persistence Scorecard”, a New York Times article takes a look at the performance of the two “winning” mutual funds from the 2014 study. Winning, in  …read more »